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- A-Level Maths

# Correlation & Regression

**Bivariate** data is data with two variables, and can be represented in a scatter diagram. We can describe the correlation between the two variables based on how much of a straight line the points on the diagram form.

Correlation describes the nature of the linear relationship between two variables.

A

**negative correlation**occurs when one variable increases as the other decreases.A

**positive correlation**occurs when both variables increase together.

### Causation

The relationship can be described as **causal** if a change in one variable induces a change in the other. It is vital to remember that just because there may be a correlation, no matter how strong, between two variables, it does not mean the relationship is causal.

Correlation does not imply causation

You need to consider the **context **of the variables and **use common sense** to decide whether or not there is causation as well as correlation.

Measuring Correlation

The **product moment coefficient, r**, is a measure of strength for linear correlation between two variables. It takes values from -1 to 1, where

If

the correlation is perfect and positive*r = 1*If

there is no correlation at all*r = 0*If

the correlation is perfect and negative*r = -1*

You calculate the product moment coefficient using a stats-equipped scientific calculator.

On a ** CASIO ClassWiz fx-991EX**, to calculate the product moment coefficient,

*r*:

Click

**MENU**Click

**6**: statisticsClick

**2**: y=a+bxInput your data in the table

Click

**AC**Click

**OPTN**Click

**3**: Regression Calcr is the product moment coefficient

## Linear Regression

The **line of best fit** on a scatter diagram approximates the relationship between the variables. The most accurate form of line of best fit is the **least squares regression line**, which minimises the sum of the squares of the distances from each data point to the line.

The regression line is plotted in the form y = a + bx

Where b tells you the change in y for each unit change in x.

If the correlation is positive, so is b, and vice versa.

To calculate a and b, use your calculator and follow the steps above for the product moment coefficient.

### Independent & Dependent Variables

The independent variable is the one that is being changed, the dependent variable is the one being measured and recorded.

The

**independent variable**should always be plotted on the**x-axis**The

**dependent variable**should always be plotted on the**y-axis**

You should only ever use the regression line to make predictions for the dependent variable

## Exponential Models

Exponentials and logarithms can be used to model non-linear data that still has a clear pattern.

If the equation is in the form

**y = axⁿ**, a graph of**log(y) against log(x)**will give a straight line where log(a) is the y intercept and n the gradient.

If the equation is in the form

**y = ab^x**, a graph of l**og(y) against x**will give a straight line where log a is the y intercept and log b the gradient.